5 Insights for Long-Term Investors in Q4 2023
As the final quarter of the year begins, markets are grappling with rising interest rates and economic uncertainty. The S&P 500 declined 3.3% in the third quarter, while the U.S. Aggregate bond index lost 3.2%. Amid negative headlines, how can long-term investors stay positive as they prepare for the final months of the year? One challenge for lifetime investors is the tendency to focus on the negative due to a psychological...
AVIOR INSIGHTS – What the Fed’s Latest Projections Mean for Long-Term Investors
At its September meeting, the Federal Open Markets Committee kept rates unchanged with a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%, in a decision that was widely anticipated by investors. Still, markets responded negatively with bond yields jumping to levels not seen since 2007, the S&P 500 falling a couple percentage points, and tech stocks retreating further from their recent peaks. This reaction may come as no surprise to investors since...
AVIOR INSIGHTS – How Stock Market Sectors Depend on the Business Cycle
For patient investors with time horizons of years and decades, the primary drivers of portfolio returns are not day-to-day market fluctuations but the business cycle and other longer-term trends. One reason that questions around inflation, the Fed, and geopolitics have resulted in market swings is that they shed light on where we might be in the cycle. Additionally, the business cycle impacts not only the broader stock market and interest...
AVIOR INSIGHTS – What Higher Oil Prices Mean for Consumers and Markets
A key driver of global markets and inflation over the past two years has been the price of oil. As an important commodity that fuels the economy, investors watch the oil market closely. While oil has fallen considerably from its peak in 2022, it has also rebounded over the last few months. Since mid-June, Brent crude prices have risen over 26%, from around $72 per barrel to above $90. What...