AVIOR INSIGHTS – Why Long-Term Investors Should Avoid the Fed Guessing Game
Economic uncertainty continues to affect financial markets, as it rightfully should since, in the long run, stock prices follow trends in economic growth. Investors are wondering how high interest rates might rise, whether there will be a deep recession (or if we're in one already), when inflation might begin to recede, if unemployment will tick up, and more. Unfortunately, speculation on these issues and how the Fed might react is...
AVIOR INSIGHTS – What the Swing to Economic Growth Means for Investors and the Fed
Major stock market indices have rebounded in October as investors hope for a slowdown in the pace of Fed rate hikes. As of Friday, October 28, the S&P 500 had gained 8.8% over the month and its year-to-date loss was cut to 18%, just slightly better than bear market levels. The Dow is now above correction territory with a 9.6% year-to-date decline while the Nasdaq, consisting of hard-hit tech stocks,...
AVIOR INSIGHTS – Why Investors Should Focus on Long-Run Factors such as Earnings
It's no secret that this year has been characterized by market and economic uncertainty due to inflation, the Fed, geopolitics, and more. Market unease has been prolonged by the fact that these economic effects take time to evolve. Inflation is not an overnight event but the result of supply and demand factors since 2020, compounded by monetary and fiscal policies. The effects of Fed rate hikes are felt over months...
AVIOR INSIGHTS – What Inflation and the Taylor Rule Mean to Investors
The latest inflation numbers confirm that the prices of everyday goods and services are still rising despite Fed rate hikes and a slowing economy. Major stock market indices continue to be in or near bear market levels with the S&P 500 down 25% year-to-date, while interest rates jumped further last week with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 4%. Whether the Fed can regain control of inflation while keeping the...